Are you too late to the market?

In our Monthly Planning Call yesterday, I got a fantastic question from one of our Tuesday Trends members that I didn’t have an answer to.

I gave it a thought, and I’m answering it here. 

She asked: how do you know when a trend is on it’s way out? When is it too late to use it in your designs? 

My thoughts (and I would love to hear your comments!)

1. Trends are very unpredictable.

We can use data to some degree, but it’s hard to pinpoint what will stick, and what will fade. An idea can pick up if it speaks to a deeper need in society: simplicity, humor, calm, etc. A new idea might briefly drop off, only to come back stronger a few months later.

2.  Not all trends get adopted at the same rate by everyone.

As a former HRBP, I’m looking at this through a change management lens. This is really just my take – no research. 

Different markets/ audiences can be at different stages simultaneously.

– There are always Early Adopters, who are constantly experimenting and willing to try new things, and champion new ideas. They might hang on to one idea for a bit longer… but they always move on to something else. These are the people who pick up new ideas and spread them widely. They’re driven by novelty over everything else. 

– Next, you get Core Groups. These are often close to the Early Adopters, but don’t pick up everything. When they do accept a change (or an idea, or a trend), chances are it has broader appeal in the community. This is the space that we want to observe – early enough to capitalize, but with enough data for proof of concept. 

– Third is the Mainstream. By the time anything gets here, Early Adopters have long moved on. This group is the vast majority of people, and is so big that the trend can stay here for a very long time. More and more people discover it as the months go by. 

If you’re in the Core Group, this is when the money starts coming in – because the market is huge.

Sometimes there’s value in being a “fast follower” in Mainstream if you can execute significantly better than the early players who rushed to market.

This is the space where businesses end up competing on price, once the novelty factor wears off.

– Finally, the Laggards. Very unlikely to adopt anything just because it’s a trend. They stick with what they know, and will accept any change only if it solves a painful problem. (And they’re willing to live with minor issues until it becomes too painful to not change). 

3. So, when is it too late? 

– When people start making fun of it, when you start seeing memes and jokes about a concept, it’s probably on its way out. 

– When your differentiator is price: not the quality or novelty of your product/solution. (Some price drop is natural, as product inputs become more widely available, and more people learn the necessary skills to build them.)

– Every major brand has their own version of it. Big players spread trends widely in the market, but it also means people start getting bored of it. It feels like you’re “seeing it everywhere”.

What does this mean for you?

The bottom-line is that trends are unpredictable. We work with available data and try to be in the “Core Group” phase – not wildly experimental, and not behind the curve.